Want to see where the momentum is in African exports? Not through headlines, not through promises — but through cold, hard numbers: customs data. Because what gets recorded at the border is what really counts.
In this post, I’ll walk you through:
- Which African countries are leading in export growth
- How to spot signs of export diversification (beyond raw materials)
- What HS (Harmonized System) codes signal that diversification
- Practical takeaways if you’re a trade analyst, business, or policymaker
Let’s dive in.
Why customs data is your friend (if you know how to read it)
Customs (or trade statistics) capture shipped volumes, values, origin, destination, and classification (via HS codes). That’s gold for trendspotters.
But be warned: it’s messy. Missed shipments, smuggling, under-invoicing all muddy the picture. Still, over time, patterns emerge.
A key trend worth noting: exports of intermediate goods (i.e. parts, semi-processed inputs) are rising sharply in Africa (excluding fuels). Between 2019 and 2022, exports of these goods grew on average ~16.8 % per year. This suggests that African economies aren’t just shipping raw commodities — they’re inching upstream in value chains.
So, what countries are riding that wave?
Fast-growing African exporters: who’s in the mix
From recent trade reports and customs tallies, a few names stand out. (Yes, I’m eyeballing reports and combining what the data says with what I’ve heard in meetings and on the ground.)
- Ghana
Known for cocoa and gold, Ghana is accelerating in processed cocoa, as well as other agricultural derivatives. - Senegal
Fish and seafood remain core, but Senegal is pushing more processed food, packaging, and agro-inputs. - Côte d’Ivoire
Cocoa again dominates, but look for increased shipments of cocoa butter, cocoa powder, chocolate, and related derivatives. - Zambia / DRC
Mining is large there, but copper and cobalt are increasingly seeing more advanced forms (not just ore). - South Africa
Already diversified, its industrial exports (auto, machinery, chemicals) remain competitive. Its intermediate goods trade surplus is notable. - Kenya & Ethiopia
Their agricultural exports are growing, but there is an increased share of processed coffee, cut flowers, and horticulture. - Nigeria (select products)
While oil is still dominant, there is a growing push for export of petrochemicals, plastics, and value-added goods in select corridors.
Note: country rankings shift depending on whether you look at value growth vs percentage growth vs diversification. A small country doubling its exports from a low base could show the fastest growth rate, but won’t move global totals much.
What is clear: countries that diversify beyond raw bulk commodities tend to weather volatility better. And customs data helps you spot that shift.
Reading diversification through HS codes
So, how do you see diversification in customs data? The trick is in the HS codes — especially departures beyond primary commodities.
Here are signals to look for. (Note: I assume you already know the basics of HS classification.)
Signal What it suggests HS code examples / headings to watch
Processed agricultural goods Moving beyond raw coffee, cocoa, cotton, sugar to processed forms HS 08 (Fruit, nuts), HS 19 (Cereals preparations), HS 20 (Vegetables, fruit, nuts preparations), HS 21 (Miscellaneous edible preparations)
Agro-inputs and chemicals Fertilizers, agrochemicals, industrial inputs rather than raw crops HS 31 (Fertilizers), HS 38 (Miscellaneous chemical products)
Intermediate and parts Shipments of parts, components, semi-finished goods HS 84 (Machinery, mechanical parts), HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment), HS 73 (Iron & steel, tubes, pipes)
Plastics and resins Polymer exports or plastic articles rather than mineral raw materials HS 39 (Plastics, articles thereof)
Metals and metal products (value-added) Bars, rods, wire, fabricated parts, alloys rather than raw ore or concentrate HS 72 (Iron & steel), HS 81 (Base metals), HS 83 (Miscellaneous articles of base metal)
Textiles, garments, apparel Upstream movement into manufacturing sectors HS 61, HS 62 (Apparel), HS 63 (Other made textile articles)
Transport equipment Parts or full units of vehicles, aircraft, etc. HS 87 (Vehicles and parts)
Electrical / electronics Appliances, circuits, semiconductors HS 84, 85 again for electromechanical, and combined codes for sub-assemblies
If you monitor annual customs data by HS 4-digit or 6-digit breakdown, you’ll see whether the share of “processed / intermediate / higher value” categories is creeping upward relative to raw commodities.
A quick example (hypothetical):
Country X exported 80% raw cocoa, 20% processed cocoa 10 years ago. Now its mix is 60% raw cocoa, 35% processed cocoa derivatives, 5% cocoa derivatives and chemicals. That shift is diversification.
Another sign: new HS lines appearing in the export mix — e.g. HS 8418 (refrigerators) or HS 8504 (electrical transformers) where before you saw nothing.
Caveat: Some product lines are easy to fake (re-invoicing, transshipment). Always corroborate with production / factory data.
Pulling it together: what the emerging data suggests
From combining recent trade reports and customs trends, here’s what’s happening in Africa’s exporter landscape:
The continent is seeing its fastest export volume growth globally in 2025.
The Guardian Nigeria
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Export growth is not only about primary commodities. Exports of intermediate goods (excluding fuels) are rising much faster than before.
World Trade Organization
Countries in West Africa (Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal) are among those that show both scale and movement into processed goods.
East African exporters lean into horticulture, specialty coffee, cut flowers (often semi-processed).
Southern Africa’s advantage: a more established industrial base helps push metal, auto, machinery exports.
In short: yes, raw commodity exports still dominate in many African nations (oil, minerals, crops). But what’s changing is the margins: more countries want more staking claim in processing, parts, inputs, appliances.
Practical advice: how to use this insight in decision-making
If you are a trade analyst, business, policymaker, here’s what you can (and should) do:
Set baseline and chase trends
Download HS-level export data (ideally 6-digit) over a 5–10 year span for your country or region.
Compute growth rates per HS line.
Flag new or fast-growing codes (e.g. codes with >20% annual growth).
Map upstream value chain potential
If you see increasing exports of cocoa powder (HS 1805) or cocoa butter (HS 1803), ask: can we push toward HS 1806 (chocolate)?
Use codes to identify missing gaps (e.g. agrochemicals, packaging, spare parts).
Focus where margins are better
Raw commodities are price volatile. Processed goods often carry more stable margins.
Use HS code shifts to forecast which sectors could yield better returns.
Use trade promotion selectively
Support industries that tie into emerging export categories.
Offer incentives or export credits for firms entering HS lines showing growth.
Validate with supply chain / industrial data
Don’t rely just on trade codes: check factory counts, employment in sector, input sources.
Visit plants, survey exporters to confirm capability.
Regional integration and infrastructure matter
Many production chains depend on cross-border inputs.
Customs reform, better ports, and trade facilitation amplify diversification.
Example: reforms in customs procedures / harmonization can speed up trade in value chain goods.
IMF eLibrary
Keep an eye on intra-Africa trade
Many African exporters currently ship to global markets, but regional integration is low.
Strengthening intra-African supply chains can buffer against external shocks.
Story time: meeting a cocoa-butter exporter in Ghana
I once visited a mid-sized Ghanaian exporter who had, until recently, shipped raw cocoa beans. Over the last five years, they’d installed a small processing line to produce cocoa butter and powder for export.
What shifted?
They needed a supplier of industrial sugar and equipment parts (HS 39, HS 84).
They had to navigate customs delays and duty codes (they chafed under import duties on spare parts).
They discovered that once they had HS lines in cocoa derivatives, it attracted smarter buyers, slightly higher margins, and more stable contracts.
If you looked at Ghana’s export data, that firm’s output showed up under HS 1803 and 1805 — and those lines were among the fastest-growing in that year in Ghana’s export basket.
That’s the human side behind the codes.
To sum up (and a few caveats)
Customs data (and HS codes) are a powerful lens to watch export growth and diversification.
Africa’s new exporters aren’t only selling raw materials; more and more are edging into processed goods, intermediate inputs, and parts.
Look for rising share of HS lines beyond primary commodities, and the emergence of new codes in your export basket.
Combine quantitative data with on-the-ground validation to avoid being misled by re-export, smuggling, or narrow niches.
Yes, there’s still a long way to go. Many African nations are locked into commodity cycles, infrastructure gaps, trade barriers, and policy volatility. But customs trends are hinting at the next wave of export transformation.